Football score predictions (teaching model)

This page describes the simple attack–defence model we use on the football data page and in worksheet question 11. It is for teaching probability and averages only—not betting advice.

Important: Predictions are generated from cached past results and a fixed formula. They do not use team news, injuries, or live odds. Treat every figure as a classroom illustration.

How the model works

Data: Finished league matches from our API-Football cache (fixtures_ft_PL.json / fixtures_ft_ELC.json), refreshed with the rest of the football quiz data.
Next fixtures: The same next-match list as elsewhere on the site—official ECAL calendars when we have a usable map for the league, otherwise a merge of API-Football and The Odds API caches—so each club’s “next match” matches the predictions table and question 11.
Team strength: For each club we look at goals for and against at home and away. We blend 70% from the last five games at that venue with 30% from the full season at that venue (constants BLEND_RECENT / BLEND_SEASON in code).
League context: We compare each side to league-average goals at home and away, then combine home attack × away defence (and vice versa) to get expected goals for the fixture. Expected goals are capped before display.
Scoreline display: We show mean expected goals (two decimal places) and a rounded integer scoreline for easy table-updates in class.
Win / draw / loss: We use a simple Poisson model on a 0–8 goals grid for each side, then normalise to percentages.
Notes column: Short text flags which factors (e.g. strong home attack, leaky away defence) nudged the forecast—again for discussion, not tipping.

Premier League

Finished matches in model: cache from 7 November 2026. Next fixtures: ECAL calendar. Official league calendar (ECAL), first kick-off after now (UK), when available.

#	Club	Next opponent	H/A	Kick-off	Predicted score (mean → rounded, club first)	Win / draw / loss (club)	Model note
1	Arsenal FC	Hull City AFC	Home	Sat, 7 Nov 2026, 15:00	2.35 – 0.33 (rounded 2–0)	82.9% win / 13.3% draw / 3.8% loss	Arsenal FC strong at home going forward.
2	Manchester City FC	Nottingham Forest	Away	Sat, 7 Nov 2026, 17:30	1.11 – 0.19 (rounded 1–0)	60.5% win / 33.2% draw / 6.3% loss	Nottingham Forest FC muted home attack; Manchester City FC solid away defence; Manchester City FC dangerous on the road.
3	Brighton & Hove Albion	Brentford FC	Home	Sun, 8 Nov 2026, 14:00	4.07 – 0.3 (rounded 4–0)	95.8% win / 3.4% draw / 0.8% loss	Brighton & Hove Albion FC strong at home going forward; Brentford FC leakier away defence; Brentford FC dangerous on the road.
4	Chelsea FC	Sunderland AFC	Away	Sun, 8 Nov 2026, 14:00	0.99 – 0.44 (rounded 1–0)	48.2% win / 35.5% draw / 16.2% loss	Sunderland AFC muted home attack; Chelsea FC leakier away defence; Chelsea FC dangerous on the road.
5	Everton FC	Brentford FC	Away	Mon, 23 Nov 2026, 20:00	0.32 – 1.67 (rounded 0–2)	6.5% win / 22% draw / 71.5% loss	Brentford FC strong at home going forward; Everton FC solid away defence.
6	Liverpool FC	Crystal Palace FC	Away	Sun, 8 Nov 2026, 14:00	2.88 – 0.94 (rounded 3–1)	77.1% win / 13.6% draw / 9.3% loss	Liverpool FC solid away defence; Liverpool FC dangerous on the road; Crystal Palace FC concede more at home.
7	Brentford FC	Brighton & Hove Albion	Away	Sun, 8 Nov 2026, 14:00	0.3 – 4.07 (rounded 0–4)	0.8% win / 3.4% draw / 95.8% loss	Brighton & Hove Albion FC strong at home going forward; Brentford FC leakier away defence; Brentford FC dangerous on the road.
8	AFC Bournemouth	Ipswich Town FC	Away	Sun, 8 Nov 2026, 14:00	1.44 – 2.35 (rounded 1–2)	22.9% win / 19.4% draw / 57.7% loss	Ipswich Town FC muted home attack; AFC Bournemouth leakier away defence; AFC Bournemouth dangerous on the road.
9	Tottenham Hotspur FC	Leeds United	Away	Sat, 7 Nov 2026, 12:30	0.37 – 1.25 (rounded 0–1)	10.9% win / 30% draw / 59.1% loss	Tottenham Hotspur FC solid away defence.
10	Aston Villa	Manchester United FC	Away	Sun, 8 Nov 2026, 16:30	1.15 – 1.88 (rounded 1–2)	23.2% win / 22.5% draw / 54.3% loss	Aston Villa FC leakier away defence; Manchester United FC concede more at home.
11	Hull City AFC	Arsenal FC	Away	Sat, 7 Nov 2026, 15:00	0.33 – 2.35 (rounded 0–2)	3.8% win / 13.3% draw / 82.9% loss	Arsenal FC strong at home going forward.
12	Leeds United	Tottenham Hotspur FC	Home	Sat, 7 Nov 2026, 12:30	1.25 – 0.37 (rounded 1–0)	59.1% win / 30% draw / 10.9% loss	Tottenham Hotspur FC solid away defence.
13	Newcastle United	Fulham FC	Away	Sat, 7 Nov 2026, 15:00	1.73 – 2.5 (rounded 2–3)	26.3% win / 18.9% draw / 54.8% loss	Newcastle United FC leakier away defence; Newcastle United FC dangerous on the road; Fulham FC concede more at home.
14	Ipswich Town FC	AFC Bournemouth	Home	Sun, 8 Nov 2026, 14:00	2.35 – 1.44 (rounded 2–1)	57.7% win / 19.4% draw / 22.9% loss	Ipswich Town FC muted home attack; AFC Bournemouth leakier away defence; AFC Bournemouth dangerous on the road.
15	Fulham FC	Newcastle United	Home	Sat, 7 Nov 2026, 15:00	2.5 – 1.73 (rounded 3–2)	54.8% win / 18.9% draw / 26.3% loss	Newcastle United FC leakier away defence; Newcastle United FC dangerous on the road; Fulham FC concede more at home.
16	Coventry City FC	Crystal Palace FC	Home	Sat, 21 Nov 2026, 15:00	2.57 – 0.71 (rounded 3–1)	77.4% win / 14.5% draw / 8.1% loss	Crystal Palace FC leakier away defence; Coventry City FC concede more at home.
17	Manchester United FC	Aston Villa	Home	Sun, 8 Nov 2026, 16:30	1.88 – 1.15 (rounded 2–1)	54.3% win / 22.5% draw / 23.2% loss	Aston Villa FC leakier away defence; Manchester United FC concede more at home.
18	Crystal Palace FC	Liverpool FC	Home	Sun, 8 Nov 2026, 14:00	0.94 – 2.88 (rounded 1–3)	9.3% win / 13.6% draw / 77.1% loss	Liverpool FC solid away defence; Liverpool FC dangerous on the road; Crystal Palace FC concede more at home.
19	Nottingham Forest	Manchester City FC	Home	Sat, 7 Nov 2026, 17:30	0.19 – 1.11 (rounded 0–1)	6.3% win / 33.2% draw / 60.5% loss	Nottingham Forest FC muted home attack; Manchester City FC solid away defence; Manchester City FC dangerous on the road.
20	Sunderland AFC	Chelsea FC	Home	Sun, 8 Nov 2026, 14:00	0.44 – 0.99 (rounded 0–1)	16.2% win / 35.5% draw / 48.2% loss	Sunderland AFC muted home attack; Chelsea FC leakier away defence; Chelsea FC dangerous on the road.

Championship

Finished matches in model: cache from 7 November 2026. Next fixtures: API / Odds caches. Merged API-Football and Odds API next-fixture caches.

#	Club	Next opponent	H/A	Kick-off	Predicted score (mean → rounded, club first)	Win / draw / loss (club)	Model note
1	Middlesbrough FC	Watford FC	Away	7 November 2026	1.73 – 1.34 (rounded 2–1)	46.8% win / 23.5% draw / 29.7% loss	Watford FC muted home attack; Middlesbrough FC leakier away defence; Middlesbrough FC dangerous on the road.
2	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Wrexham AFC	Away	7 November 2026	0.94 – 1.67 (rounded 1–2)	21.2% win / 24.3% draw / 54.6% loss	Wrexham AFC strong at home going forward; Wolverhampton Wanderers FC solid away defence; Wolverhampton Wanderers FC dangerous on the road.
3	Birmingham City FC	Swansea City AFC	Home	7 November 2026	4.66 – 0.59 (rounded 5–1)	95.2% win / 3.5% draw / 1.3% loss	Birmingham City FC strong at home going forward; Swansea City AFC leakier away defence.
4	Stoke City FC	Portsmouth FC	Away	7 November 2026	1.23 – 1.79 (rounded 1–2)	26.3% win / 23.2% draw / 50.5% loss	Portsmouth FC strong at home going forward; Stoke City FC solid away defence; Stoke City FC dangerous on the road.
5	Swansea City AFC	Birmingham City FC	Away	7 November 2026	0.59 – 4.66 (rounded 1–5)	1.3% win / 3.5% draw / 95.2% loss	Birmingham City FC strong at home going forward; Swansea City AFC leakier away defence.
6	West Bromwich Albion	Millwall FC	Home	7 November 2026	2.01 – 0.63 (rounded 2–1)	69.9% win / 19.5% draw / 10.6% loss	West Bromwich Albion FC muted home attack; Millwall FC leakier away defence.
7	Southampton FC	Preston North End FC	Away	7 November 2026	1.27 – 0.95 (rounded 1–1)	43.8% win / 28.5% draw / 27.7% loss	Preston North End FC muted home attack.
8	West Ham United FC	Blackburn Rovers	Away	7 November 2026	2.13 – 1.94 (rounded 2–2)	43.5% win / 20.4% draw / 36.1% loss	West Ham United FC leakier away defence; West Ham United FC dangerous on the road.
9	Sheffield United FC	Charlton Athletic	Away	7 November 2026	1 – 0.59 (rounded 1–1)	44.5% win / 34.2% draw / 21.2% loss	Charlton Athletic FC muted home attack; Sheffield United FC leakier away defence; Sheffield United FC dangerous on the road.
10	Portsmouth FC	Stoke City FC	Home	7 November 2026	1.79 – 1.23 (rounded 2–1)	50.5% win / 23.2% draw / 26.3% loss	Portsmouth FC strong at home going forward; Stoke City FC solid away defence; Stoke City FC dangerous on the road.
11	Queens Park Rangers FC	Lincoln City FC	Home	7 November 2026	2.09 – 0.47 (rounded 2–0)	75.4% win / 17.4% draw / 7.2% loss	Queens Park Rangers FC strong at home going forward; Lincoln City FC solid away defence.
12	Norwich City FC	Bristol City FC	Away	7 November 2026	1.62 – 0.57 (rounded 2–1)	62.9% win / 24.2% draw / 12.8% loss	Bristol City FC muted home attack; Norwich City FC leakier away defence; Norwich City FC dangerous on the road.
13	Millwall FC	West Bromwich Albion	Away	7 November 2026	0.63 – 2.01 (rounded 1–2)	10.6% win / 19.5% draw / 69.9% loss	West Bromwich Albion FC muted home attack; Millwall FC leakier away defence.
14	Blackburn Rovers	West Ham United FC	Home	7 November 2026	1.94 – 2.13 (rounded 2–2)	36.1% win / 20.4% draw / 43.5% loss	West Ham United FC leakier away defence; West Ham United FC dangerous on the road.
15	Bristol City FC	Norwich City FC	Home	7 November 2026	0.57 – 1.62 (rounded 1–2)	12.8% win / 24.2% draw / 62.9% loss	Bristol City FC muted home attack; Norwich City FC leakier away defence; Norwich City FC dangerous on the road.
16	Wrexham AFC	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Home	7 November 2026	1.67 – 0.94 (rounded 2–1)	54.6% win / 24.3% draw / 21.2% loss	Wrexham AFC strong at home going forward; Wolverhampton Wanderers FC solid away defence; Wolverhampton Wanderers FC dangerous on the road.
17	Bolton Wanderers FC	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	Cardiff City FC	Burnley FC	Home	7 November 2026	3.78 – 1.15 (rounded 4–1)	83.4% win / 9.6% draw / 7% loss	Cardiff City FC strong at home going forward; Burnley FC leakier away defence; Burnley FC dangerous on the road.
19	Lincoln City FC	Queens Park Rangers FC	Away	7 November 2026	0.47 – 2.09 (rounded 0–2)	7.2% win / 17.4% draw / 75.4% loss	Queens Park Rangers FC strong at home going forward; Lincoln City FC solid away defence.
20	Watford FC	Middlesbrough FC	Home	7 November 2026	1.34 – 1.73 (rounded 1–2)	29.7% win / 23.5% draw / 46.8% loss	Watford FC muted home attack; Middlesbrough FC leakier away defence; Middlesbrough FC dangerous on the road.
21	Charlton Athletic	Sheffield United FC	Home	7 November 2026	0.59 – 1 (rounded 1–1)	21.2% win / 34.2% draw / 44.5% loss	Charlton Athletic FC muted home attack; Sheffield United FC leakier away defence; Sheffield United FC dangerous on the road.
22	Burnley FC	Cardiff City FC	Away	7 November 2026	1.15 – 3.78 (rounded 1–4)	7% win / 9.6% draw / 83.4% loss	Cardiff City FC strong at home going forward; Burnley FC leakier away defence; Burnley FC dangerous on the road.
23	Derby County	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	Preston North End FC	Southampton FC	Home	7 November 2026	0.95 – 1.27 (rounded 1–1)	27.7% win / 28.5% draw / 43.8% loss	Preston North End FC muted home attack.

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