Football score predictions (teaching model)

This page describes the simple attack–defence model we use on the football data page and in worksheet question 11. It is for teaching probability and averages only—not betting advice.

Important: Predictions are generated from cached past results and a fixed formula. They do not use team news, injuries, or live odds. Treat every figure as a classroom illustration.

How the model works

Data: Finished league matches from our API-Football cache (fixtures_ft_PL.json / fixtures_ft_ELC.json), refreshed with the rest of the football quiz data.
Next fixtures: The same next-match list as elsewhere on the site—official ECAL calendars when we have a usable map for the league, otherwise a merge of API-Football and The Odds API caches—so each club’s “next match” matches the predictions table and question 11.
Team strength: For each club we look at goals for and against at home and away. We blend 70% from the last five games at that venue with 30% from the full season at that venue (constants BLEND_RECENT / BLEND_SEASON in code).
League context: We compare each side to league-average goals at home and away, then combine home attack × away defence (and vice versa) to get expected goals for the fixture. Expected goals are capped before display.
Scoreline display: We show mean expected goals (two decimal places) and a rounded integer scoreline for easy table-updates in class.
Win / draw / loss: We use a simple Poisson model on a 0–8 goals grid for each side, then normalise to percentages.
Notes column: Short text flags which factors (e.g. strong home attack, leaky away defence) nudged the forecast—again for discussion, not tipping.

Premier League

Finished matches in model: cache from 8 June 2026. Next fixtures: API / Odds caches. Merged API-Football and Odds API next-fixture caches.

#	Club	Next opponent	H/A	Kick-off	Predicted score (mean → rounded, club first)	Win / draw / loss (club)	Model note
1	Arsenal FC	—	—	—	—	—	—
2	Manchester City FC	—	—	—	—	—	—
3	Manchester United FC	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	Aston Villa	—	—	—	—	—	—
5	Liverpool FC	—	—	—	—	—	—
6	AFC Bournemouth	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	Sunderland AFC	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	Brighton & Hove Albion	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	Brentford FC	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	Chelsea FC	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	Fulham FC	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	Newcastle United	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	Everton FC	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	Leeds United	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	Crystal Palace FC	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	Nottingham Forest	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	Tottenham Hotspur FC	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	West Ham United FC	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	Burnley FC	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	Wolverhampton Wanderers	—	—	—	—	—	—

Championship

Finished matches in model: cache from 8 June 2026. Next fixtures: API / Odds caches. Merged API-Football and Odds API next-fixture caches.

#	Club	Next opponent	H/A	Kick-off	Predicted score (mean → rounded, club first)	Win / draw / loss (club)	Model note
1	Coventry City FC	—	—	—	—	—	—
2	Ipswich Town FC	—	—	—	—	—	—
3	Millwall FC	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	Southampton FC	—	—	—	—	—	—
5	Middlesbrough FC	—	—	—	—	—	—
6	Hull City AFC	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	Wrexham AFC	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	Derby County	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	Norwich City FC	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	Birmingham City FC	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	Swansea City AFC	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	Bristol City FC	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	Sheffield United FC	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	Preston North End FC	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	Queens Park Rangers FC	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	Watford FC	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	Stoke City FC	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	Portsmouth FC	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	Charlton Athletic	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	Blackburn Rovers	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	West Bromwich Albion	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	Oxford United FC	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	Leicester City FC	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	Sheffield Wednesday FC	—	—	—	—	—	—

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