Football score predictions (teaching model)

This page describes the simple attack–defence model we use on the football data page and in worksheet question 11. It is for teaching probability and averages only—not betting advice.

Important: Predictions are generated from cached past results and a fixed formula. They do not use team news, injuries, or live odds. Treat every figure as a classroom illustration.

How the model works

Data: Finished league matches from our API-Football cache (fixtures_ft_PL.json / fixtures_ft_ELC.json), refreshed with the rest of the football quiz data.
Next fixtures: The same next-match list as elsewhere on the site—official ECAL calendars when we have a usable map for the league, otherwise a merge of API-Football and The Odds API caches—so each club’s “next match” matches the predictions table and question 11.
Team strength: For each club we look at goals for and against at home and away. We blend 70% from the last five games at that venue with 30% from the full season at that venue (constants BLEND_RECENT / BLEND_SEASON in code).
League context: We compare each side to league-average goals at home and away, then combine home attack × away defence (and vice versa) to get expected goals for the fixture. Expected goals are capped before display.
Scoreline display: We show mean expected goals (two decimal places) and a rounded integer scoreline for easy table-updates in class.
Win / draw / loss: We use a simple Poisson model on a 0–8 goals grid for each side, then normalise to percentages.
Notes column: Short text flags which factors (e.g. strong home attack, leaky away defence) nudged the forecast—again for discussion, not tipping.

Premier League

Finished matches in model: cache from 13 September 2026. Next fixtures: ECAL calendar. Official league calendar (ECAL), first kick-off after now (UK), when available.

#	Club	Next opponent	H/A	Kick-off	Predicted score (mean → rounded, club first)	Win / draw / loss (club)	Model note
1	Arsenal FC	Brighton & Hove Albion	Away	Sat, 19 Sept 2026, 15:00	1.64 – 0.52 (rounded 2–1)	64.8% win / 23.7% draw / 11.5% loss	Brighton & Hove Albion FC strong at home going forward; Arsenal FC solid away defence; Arsenal FC dangerous on the road.
2	Manchester City FC	Manchester United FC	Away	Sun, 13 Sept 2026, 16:30	3.81 – 1.85 (rounded 4–2)	72.6% win / 12.7% draw / 14.7% loss	Manchester United FC strong at home going forward; Manchester City FC solid away defence; Manchester City FC dangerous on the road.
3	Hull City AFC	Newcastle United	Away	Sat, 19 Sept 2026, 15:00	1.37 – 1 (rounded 1–1)	45.2% win / 27.3% draw / 27.5% loss	Newcastle United FC strong at home going forward; Hull City AFC solid away defence.
4	Chelsea FC	Brentford FC	Away	Fri, 18 Sept 2026, 20:00	1.34 – 3.06 (rounded 1–3)	13.8% win / 14.6% draw / 71.7% loss	Brentford FC strong at home going forward; Chelsea FC leakier away defence; Chelsea FC dangerous on the road.
5	Brentford FC	Chelsea FC	Home	Fri, 18 Sept 2026, 20:00	3.06 – 1.34 (rounded 3–1)	71.7% win / 14.6% draw / 13.8% loss	Brentford FC strong at home going forward; Chelsea FC leakier away defence; Chelsea FC dangerous on the road.
6	Liverpool FC	AFC Bournemouth	Away	Sun, 20 Sept 2026, 14:00	1.86 – 1.16 (rounded 2–1)	53.8% win / 22.7% draw / 23.5% loss	Liverpool FC solid away defence; Liverpool FC dangerous on the road; AFC Bournemouth concede more at home.
7	Everton FC	Ipswich Town FC	Home	Sat, 19 Sept 2026, 15:00	3.18 – 1.1 (rounded 3–1)	77.9% win / 12.5% draw / 9.5% loss	Ipswich Town FC leakier away defence; Ipswich Town FC dangerous on the road.
8	Ipswich Town FC	Everton FC	Away	Sat, 19 Sept 2026, 15:00	1.1 – 3.18 (rounded 1–3)	9.5% win / 12.5% draw / 77.9% loss	Ipswich Town FC leakier away defence; Ipswich Town FC dangerous on the road.
9	Newcastle United	Leeds United	Away	Mon, 14 Sept 2026, 20:00	1.03 – 0.72 (rounded 1–1)	42.2% win / 32.8% draw / 25% loss	Leeds United FC muted home attack; Newcastle United FC solid away defence; Newcastle United FC dangerous on the road.
10	Leeds United	Newcastle United	Home	Mon, 14 Sept 2026, 20:00	0.72 – 1.03 (rounded 1–1)	25% win / 32.8% draw / 42.2% loss	Leeds United FC muted home attack; Newcastle United FC solid away defence; Newcastle United FC dangerous on the road.
11	Nottingham Forest	Coventry City FC	Home	Sat, 19 Sept 2026, 17:30	0.95 – 0.15 (rounded 1–0)	56.2% win / 38.1% draw / 5.7% loss	Nottingham Forest FC muted home attack; Coventry City FC leakier away defence.
12	Brighton & Hove Albion	Coventry City FC	Away	Sun, 13 Sept 2026, 14:00	2.73 – 0.54 (rounded 3–1)	83% win / 11.9% draw / 5.1% loss	Coventry City FC muted home attack; Brighton & Hove Albion FC leakier away defence; Brighton & Hove Albion FC dangerous on the road.
13	Manchester United FC	Manchester City FC	Home	Sun, 13 Sept 2026, 16:30	1.85 – 3.81 (rounded 2–4)	14.7% win / 12.7% draw / 72.6% loss	Manchester United FC strong at home going forward; Manchester City FC solid away defence; Manchester City FC dangerous on the road.
14	Sunderland AFC	Manchester City FC	Away	Sun, 20 Sept 2026, 14:00	0.34 – 2.13 (rounded 0–2)	4.8% win / 15.8% draw / 79.4% loss	Manchester City FC strong at home going forward.
15	AFC Bournemouth	Liverpool FC	Home	Sun, 20 Sept 2026, 14:00	1.16 – 1.86 (rounded 1–2)	23.5% win / 22.7% draw / 53.8% loss	Liverpool FC solid away defence; Liverpool FC dangerous on the road; AFC Bournemouth concede more at home.
16	Crystal Palace FC	Leeds United	Away	Sun, 20 Sept 2026, 14:00	0.77 – 1.95 (rounded 1–2)	14.1% win / 20.9% draw / 65% loss	Leeds United FC muted home attack; Crystal Palace FC leakier away defence; Crystal Palace FC dangerous on the road.
17	Tottenham Hotspur FC	Aston Villa	Home	Sat, 19 Sept 2026, 12:30	0.42 – 0.21 (rounded 0–0)	29% win / 58.3% draw / 12.7% loss	Tottenham Hotspur FC muted home attack; Aston Villa FC leakier away defence.
18	Fulham FC	Manchester United FC	Home	Sun, 20 Sept 2026, 16:30	2 – 2.76 (rounded 2–3)	27.8% win / 17.9% draw / 54.3% loss	Fulham FC muted home attack; Manchester United FC leakier away defence; Manchester United FC dangerous on the road.
19	Aston Villa	Tottenham Hotspur FC	Away	Sat, 19 Sept 2026, 12:30	0.21 – 0.42 (rounded 0–0)	12.7% win / 58.3% draw / 29% loss	Tottenham Hotspur FC muted home attack; Aston Villa FC leakier away defence.
20	Coventry City FC	Brighton & Hove Albion	Home	Sun, 13 Sept 2026, 14:00	0.54 – 2.73 (rounded 1–3)	5.1% win / 11.9% draw / 83% loss	Coventry City FC muted home attack; Brighton & Hove Albion FC leakier away defence; Brighton & Hove Albion FC dangerous on the road.

Championship

Finished matches in model: cache from 13 September 2026. Next fixtures: API / Odds caches. Merged API-Football and Odds API next-fixture caches.

#	Club	Next opponent	H/A	Kick-off	Predicted score (mean → rounded, club first)	Win / draw / loss (club)	Model note
1	West Ham United FC	Millwall FC	Away	19 September 2026	1.21 – 3.14 (rounded 1–3)	11.3% win / 13.4% draw / 75.3% loss	Millwall FC strong at home going forward; West Ham United FC leakier away defence; West Ham United FC dangerous on the road.
2	Swansea City AFC	Lincoln City FC	Away	19 September 2026	1.62 – 0.72 (rounded 2–1)	58.9% win / 24.6% draw / 16.4% loss	Lincoln City FC muted home attack; Swansea City AFC dangerous on the road.
3	West Bromwich Albion	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Away	20 September 2026	1.49 – 2.93 (rounded 1–3)	17.2% win / 15.9% draw / 66.8% loss	Wolverhampton Wanderers FC strong at home going forward; Wolverhampton Wanderers FC concede more at home.
4	Middlesbrough FC	Millwall FC	Home	15 September 2026	6.46 – 1.35 (rounded 6–1)	94.9% win / 3.1% draw / 1.9% loss	Middlesbrough FC strong at home going forward; Millwall FC leakier away defence.
5	Queens Park Rangers FC	Preston North End FC	Home	19 September 2026	0.9 – 0.27 (rounded 1–0)	50.1% win / 39.1% draw / 10.8% loss	Queens Park Rangers FC muted home attack; Preston North End FC leakier away defence.
6	Charlton Athletic	Cardiff City FC	Away	19 September 2026	0.81 – 2.15 (rounded 1–2)	12.8% win / 18.9% draw / 68.3% loss	Cardiff City FC muted home attack; Charlton Athletic FC leakier away defence.
7	Southampton FC	Wrexham AFC	Away	19 September 2026	0.81 – 1.08 (rounded 1–1)	27% win / 31.6% draw / 41.4% loss	Wrexham AFC muted home attack.
8	Birmingham City FC	Middlesbrough FC	Home	19 September 2026	1.35 – 1.01 (rounded 1–1)	44.5% win / 27.5% draw / 28.1% loss	Middlesbrough FC solid away defence.
9	Stoke City FC	Sheffield United FC	Home	19 September 2026	1.62 – 0.54 (rounded 2–1)	63.9% win / 24.1% draw / 12% loss	Stoke City FC strong at home going forward; Sheffield United FC solid away defence.
10	Bristol City FC	Lincoln City FC	Home	15 September 2026	0.92 – 1.04 (rounded 1–1)	31.2% win / 31.2% draw / 37.6% loss	Lincoln City FC solid away defence.
11	Norwich City FC	Bolton Wanderers FC	Home	20 September 2026	4.4 – 0.54 (rounded 4–1)	94.8% win / 3.9% draw / 1.4% loss	Norwich City FC strong at home going forward; Bolton Wanderers FC leakier away defence.
12	Millwall FC	Middlesbrough FC	Away	15 September 2026	1.35 – 6.46 (rounded 1–6)	1.9% win / 3.1% draw / 94.9% loss	Middlesbrough FC strong at home going forward; Millwall FC leakier away defence.
13	Sheffield United FC	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Home	13 September 2026	2.51 – 2.36 (rounded 3–2)	43.4% win / 18.6% draw / 38% loss	Sheffield United FC muted home attack; Wolverhampton Wanderers FC leakier away defence; Wolverhampton Wanderers FC dangerous on the road.
14	Wolverhampton Wanderers	Sheffield United FC	Away	13 September 2026	2.36 – 2.51 (rounded 2–3)	38% win / 18.6% draw / 43.4% loss	Sheffield United FC muted home attack; Wolverhampton Wanderers FC leakier away defence; Wolverhampton Wanderers FC dangerous on the road.
15	Blackburn Rovers	Portsmouth FC	Away	19 September 2026	1.01 – 1.08 (rounded 1–1)	33.2% win / 30% draw / 36.7% loss	Portsmouth FC muted home attack.
16	Lincoln City FC	Bristol City FC	Away	15 September 2026	1.04 – 0.92 (rounded 1–1)	37.6% win / 31.2% draw / 31.2% loss	Lincoln City FC solid away defence.
17	Watford FC	Bristol City FC	Away	18 September 2026	0.35 – 1.83 (rounded 0–2)	6.2% win / 19.7% draw / 74% loss	Ratings close to league average.
18	Portsmouth FC	Blackburn Rovers	Home	19 September 2026	1.08 – 1.01 (rounded 1–1)	36.7% win / 30% draw / 33.2% loss	Portsmouth FC muted home attack.
19	Wrexham AFC	Southampton FC	Home	19 September 2026	1.08 – 0.81 (rounded 1–1)	41.4% win / 31.6% draw / 27% loss	Wrexham AFC muted home attack.
20	Bolton Wanderers FC	Norwich City FC	Away	20 September 2026	0.54 – 4.4 (rounded 1–4)	1.4% win / 3.9% draw / 94.8% loss	Norwich City FC strong at home going forward; Bolton Wanderers FC leakier away defence.
21	Cardiff City FC	Charlton Athletic	Home	19 September 2026	2.15 – 0.81 (rounded 2–1)	68.3% win / 18.9% draw / 12.8% loss	Cardiff City FC muted home attack; Charlton Athletic FC leakier away defence.
22	Derby County	Burnley FC	Away	19 September 2026	1.01 – 1.8 (rounded 1–2)	21.1% win / 23.1% draw / 55.8% loss	Burnley FC muted home attack; Derby County FC leakier away defence.
23	Preston North End FC	Queens Park Rangers FC	Away	19 September 2026	0.27 – 0.9 (rounded 0–1)	10.8% win / 39.1% draw / 50.1% loss	Queens Park Rangers FC muted home attack; Preston North End FC leakier away defence.
24	Burnley FC	Derby County	Home	19 September 2026	1.8 – 1.01 (rounded 2–1)	55.8% win / 23.1% draw / 21.1% loss	Burnley FC muted home attack; Derby County FC leakier away defence.

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